Sunday, December 31, 2017

Man vs Machine ?

 

The Kasparov Effect: Psychological Denial Let’s look at the facts without the emotional baggage. In 1997, IBM’s Deep Blue beat Gary Kasparov. Later, a machine won Jeopardy!. When Kasparov lost, he complained that he didn't get to study Deep Blue's moves, while the machine had analyzed all of his. This is classic "pain-avoiding psychological denial." He refused to accept reality. The machine had the data; the man had the ego. In a contest between a fatigue-free algorithm and a human prone to bias, bet on the algorithm for the grunt work.

Invert the Question People are running around hyperventilating, asking, "Will computers outperform us?" or "Will I lose my job?"

Invert the question. Instead of asking how computers will replace us, ask: "How can I use this machine to be less stupid?"

There is no doubt that computational tasks are better left to the silicon. There is hardly a desk job left that doesn't rely on a computer. We like to tell ourselves a comforting fairy tale that "creative" or "strategic" work is safe. That’s nonsense. Creativity is just a complex pattern recognition process. If you give a machine enough prior data and a feedback loop, it can generate art or write news. It doesn’t get tired. It doesn’t get depressed. It just executes.

Look at machine generated art. 

https://deepdreamgenerator.com/

Or machine generated human faces. These are not real people!

https://www.thispersondoesnotexist.com/

Man Plus Machine Here is the mental model you need to understand the future. Look at the free-style tournament Kasparov organized later. You had three groups:

  1. Inferior players with superior computers.

  2. Grandmasters with inferior computers.

  3. Moderate players with moderate computers.

Who won? The third group.

This is a multiplier effect—when two or more forces combine to produce a result greater than the sum of the parts. The grandmaster failed because he had too much ego to listen to the machine. The inferior player failed because he didn't know what to ask the machine. The winner was the moderate player who had the process right: he provided the judgment, and the computer provided the calculation.

The Conclusion Stop panicking about the machines taking over. Envy and fear are the stupidest of the deadly sins. The computer is a lever. If you are wise, you use the lever to move the world. If you are a fool, you let the lever crush you.

Steve Jobs had it right: the computer is a "bicycle for the mind." It makes you faster, but you still have to pedal.

Humanity will reinvent itself because it has to. As professionals, our job is simple: Use the tool to compound your own rationality. Don't just get used to it—master it.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.